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 Scenarios for the Kashmir crisis - Reuters

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PostSubject: Scenarios for the Kashmir crisis - Reuters   Scenarios for the Kashmir crisis - Reuters Icon_minitimeThu Aug 28, 2008 9:32 am

FACTBOX-Scenarios for the Kashmir crisis

SRINAGAR, India, Aug 25 (Reuters) - A land row over a Hindu pilgrimage has sparked some of the biggest protests in Kashmir in two decades.

Here are some scenarios for the latest conflict.

INDIA AND KASHMIR

Kashmir is not a major issue for the rest of Indian voters. With this in mind and with eyes on 2009 elections, the Indian government might just drift along and hope protests fizzle.

Some analysts predict a doomsday scenario, with more protests leading to the breakup of Kashmir state, split between Hindus and Muslims.

Others predict mass protests forcing the government to appease separatists with some negotiations, from issues such as tentative demilitarisation to relaxation of border controls.

The long-neglected issue of holding a plebiscite on Kashmir, for example, has made it into Indian newspaper editorials.

The immediate focus could fall on state elections due later this year. The state government is leaderless and some Indians see free and fair elections as the first step to a peaceful solution. But violence could see the elections suspended.

Any suspension would be seen as a victory for the separatists, who want elections boycotted. Mainstream parties that accept New Delhi rule and participate in elections are currently overshadowed by separatists.

SEPARATISTS

The protests have tentatively united a disparate group of separatists like the All Parties Hurriyat (Freedom) Conference, which condemns militant violence, and the breakaway group of hardliner Syed Ali Shah Geelani, for years seen as marginalised.

Some separatists see the protests as the expression of a new generation of Kashmiris who reject years of militant violence in favour of mass, peaceful protests.

Nearly all analysts agree that the separatist movement has received a huge political boost since the crisis broke out.

INDIA-PAKISTAN

A tentative peace process between Pakistan and India has perhaps been among the worst affected by the Kashmir troubles.

The protests have sparked some of their sharpest diplomatic spats in years. India accused Pakistan of interfering in its internal affairs after Islamabad talked of U.N. intervention. The two countries, which have fought three wars since independence in 1947 and nearly came to a fourth in 2002, had been enjoying some of their best relations in decades since a peace process began in 2004 under former Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf.

The crisis has also coincided with what Indians see as a political vacuum in Pakistan after Musharraf's resignation.

Some Indians fear instability in Pakistan will see political leaders using Kashmir to deflect attention from the country's political problems.

RELIGIOUS TENSIONS

The crisis has raised fears of communal tension in the state, split between the Hindu-majority region around Jammu city and the Muslim Kashmir valley.

The spat was sparked after the state government promised to give forest land to a trust that runs Amarnath, a cave shrine visited by Hindu pilgrims. Many Muslims were enraged. The government then rescinded its decision, which in turn angered Hindus in Jammu, the winter capital of the region.

The Kashmir valley is nearly all Muslim. But in more diverse Jammu, Hindu mobs have torched some Muslim hamlets, and Muslim crowds have attacked Hindu lorry drivers. There is little evidence of tension spreading to the rest of India.

KASHMIR ECONOMY AND TOURISM

The crisis has scared away thousands of visitors, leaving behind empty hotels and houseboats on the famous Lake Dal.

The unrest has cost the state's economy, including tourism, more than $1 billion since June, state officials estimate. (Compiled by Alistair Scrutton; Editing by Paul Tait) (Reuters Messaging: alistair.scrutton.reuters.com@reuters.net; Email: alistair.scrutton@thomsonreuters.com; +91-11-4178-1008)

Source:
Reuters
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