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zafar
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PostSubject: our leaders not thinking ahead, only focus is crisis genration or containment   Fri Jul 09, 2010 1:01 pm

Questions being ducked by the leadership.

On one hand their prominence came when they became the focal definers backed by armed militants sponsored by Pakistan. The conditioned the valleys population to obedience from fear of reprisals of the militants. Then the militancy got marginalized and a new crop of people were needed.

The new weapon they found is stone pelters. Ten to twenty year olds who are yet to have a mature head on their shoulders, therefore susceptible. The going rate was Rs500 per person which the contractor took, paid out 200 or 300, pocketed the rest. The instigators waited till someone died. The fanned the flame to get more stone pelters in.

It almost succeeded in 2009, but when the maisuma youth was found to be killed by a friend and not the CRPF. The leaders bided their time.

For them the youths were pawns. Some one would die. Some cop would get crazed sometime. What was needed was relentless stone (massive ones) smashed on and on to provoke retaliation.

Success in 2010. They were able to jump from one death to another, knowing that a young boy who dies will evoke emotion, but their band wagon would move. Gleeful Gilani. Mindless Gilani. Leading Kashmir to a future like Palestine.

Not only the Hurriyat who are mainly self serving or serving their mentors, as the case may be, but also the like of negative oriented PDP and self interested oriented other political groups like NC, or local chunks of national parties like congress and always suspiciously bordering of the communal divide like BJP: have collectively and individually let the kashmiri down and float from one crisis to another.


Evading the main issue. What is that, people have been successfully worked away from anything that can form a solution.

Answers are possible to the following questions. But unless these are answered no solution will come about that forms a peace with honour for kashmiris.

I am reminded of :

Barbaad Gulistan karne ko
Bus ek hi ullo kafi hai
Har shakh pe ullo baitha hai
Anjame gulistan kya hoga

If the so called leaders stamp is merger with Pakistan or Aazadi or some greater autonomy within India. Some or most parts of the following hold true.

Geographic boundaries, how to establish and sustain?
J&K has areas like Gilgit and some areas that bound China who already have claimed part of the territory. There is a dispute. Will Pakistan cede their all-important Karakoram highway? Surely and neatly Gilgit has already been cleaved away. Is this over or is there an agenda still for other stakeholders? How do Pakistan, China and India ensure that their boundary lines will remain firm? Which is the international border?

People, managing the mix, customs, religious tolerance, culture?
J&K has a large Hindu and Muslim population and important components from Ladakh and Sikhs. Then there are tribal and other important distinct aspects, such as those of the Gujjars. What will be their status? Firstly in seeking Aazadi, then in each preserving their way of life and under what rules.

In the aspects of religion, what is obvious that if each one stays close to its core there is no conflict. For Hindus the guiding force are the Vedas say to each man his ishta (path). For Muslims, if they simply follow the Holy Koran and Hadith there can be little chance of conflicts; The Buddhists are essentially peace loving and the Sikhs well integrated. So these can become a strong foundation and direction and such would be a basis of a workable framework that would then naturally extend to customs and cultures.


Economy, what we gain, what we loose, who pays?
J&K gets tens of thousands of crores annually from the Centre at the moment. Aazadi means that this is not coming. Nor subsidized rice, kerosene, petrol, diesel etc. Where is the income J&K gets on its own and will this be even sufficient for the government salaries. Where will the 9000 crores needed to pay government salaries come from? What will be the price of rice? Of Petrol and diesel? Where will we get the mutton and chicken? What will it cost? Will there be an import duty? How will our currency be valued and its exchange rate? Will it mean import licenses for TVís, Fridges, Cars, medicines; all goods that are manufactured outside J&K? At the start what is the position and how long will it remain such?

Infrastructure and Power Generation?
Assume that the existing power plans are handed over. Will we still have to repay the central government loan? Who will invest for new power projects? Where will the money come from? Who will develop new schools, roads, bridges, colleges, flyovers etc? What will be the Aazadi position to fund the same? Where will we get electricity from, will this have to be paid for? Who will pay, the consumer? With a 200-rupee connection that consumes 1000 rupees of power who will fund the gap and where will the Aazadi government get the money?

What happens to the water resources?
Indus water treaty. Then since mid 2009 Pakistan is separately and strongly stating the water issue. Aazadi will mean a third dimension. Who will give up their claim and existing arrangement? Will we still not be allowed to put up Hydel power? This is a huge issue for all. Already it is becoming obvious that, since 2009 later half, Pakistan has decided to aggressively launch the water dispute as a main agenda top item and disassociating this agenda from the Kashmir issue. When autonomy is done, both India and Pakistan must pay annuities for the water used, with rates enhanceble over the medium long term.

Education, start levels to higher education, where?
OK we have schools. We can have more private schools. But where will we do our higher education. If new colleges are to be built who pays for them? Where is the money? Will we have foreign exchange available to buy Indian Rupees, Dollars or Pakistani Rupees? Or will it be like old times when all you could get in foreign exchange was 500 dollars.
The balance of payment. How much a country exports and how much it imports defines the exchange rate? What value of consumed items or sold items in J&K come from outside today. What is our net export value of fruit, handicrafts etc? How does this balance out? Will there be trade restrictions from India and Pakistan? Will 20 Kashmiri rupees be worth 10 Indian or 15 Pakistani rupees? Will the fee to be paid for a Computer engineer course simply double because of exchange rates? Will there be a Nepal like acceptance of the Indian Rupee as a free currency? What? Things need to be spelt out.

What is the emerging vision? The roadmap for 20 years?
What is the plan? What industries can come up? What services sector industries can come up? What tourism potential can be developed? What infrastructure like roads, bridges, waterworks etc will be needed? How will it be funded? When will the funds be available? What will the prices be like? One year from now, two years or five years. What will be the quality of life and quality of governance? When do the Aazadi population start getting a good quality of life and financial stability. What time horizon? What hard work horizon? What deprived level horizon? Best case, worst case scenarios. How do we manage the safety of the land and people?

Will we need Aid? On what conditions? For how long? From whom?
It is clear that we still survive on economic grants from the centre. They have a road building program so we get a part of it and voila, the roads in Srinagar and Jammu are better now. But once this disappears where do we get the money. Even Pakistan a nation state of over 50 years is subsisting on American aid? Who will help J&K? What will be their price? What terms and conditions? What strings will they pull? What all will they demand? Pakistan by itself is dependent on US and other aid, what they can spare will not be meaningful. India has the resources but that means economic marriage so whatís different? The western countries will perhaps give but at a cost and on demands that mean that Aazadi remains bounded still.

It is incumbent on political and other leadership to come out with clarity on all issues like these. Perhaps they need to spend this summer of 2010 on this. Perhaps guided by economists, planners and others.

By no means what I have written above is the complete set of issues. I am a strong advocate of being solution centric, but to find solutions one must define the problems, that is the start point. Each group needs to get all such issues on board, find out where-we-are and show solutions that are possible. Economic & Political Feasibility and timescales included. Create agendas for attainment and only then can they be pursued. A comprehensive proposed shadow budget under a changed scenario for example. A believable strategic positioning in other non-financial areas. A road map then seems vital. The first outcome of such and exercise will be that it will bring our priortised issues sharply and clearly that need to be negotiated, if you may, and form a purposeful agenda for talks.

But what Kashmir does not need is to fall from the frying pan to the fire, which it surely could if realities are not visited and addressed. Beyond any jazba is the realm of responsibility that surely will become the deliverable as soon as the jazba chapter is over. Both jazba and due diligence on practicalities are equally important. There would be secondary battles thereafter, of corruption, of efficiency, of work culture; but these need to evolve in any case.

I am no subscriber to any rigid mindset. The only mindset I have is an enduring peace with honourable existence of all people. Greater Autonomy, self-rule or the greatest autonomy of Aazadi is the swath across which the solution exists and it is the duty of each and every leader to seek the best point across this range of possibility. That ironically is the first thing all need to agree upon!

Crystallizing thought and addressing such issues to workable and worthwhile levels is the key. Not doing so will mean that we throw away the key and attempt to feebly break a gigantic gridlock and sail Kashmir in the same enduring drift of self-prominence in the doldrums of time.

All aspects and few related issues of each concern me as a Kashmiri (read of J&K) and of course are of concern to the entire population sooner or later. It is to the serious minded intelligentsia that I present the above to be debated, ridiculed, criticized, or worked out. In bits or pieces or on the whole. The corollary perhaps is that it is incumbent for each political shade and direction to get their roadmaps out in detail. The same questions apply in different shades to all the leaders and their orientations. The key for all of us must inevitably depend on the following:

When you see the sunrise of tomorrows promise you never fear the future.


Tailpeice:



Geographic boundaries, how to establish and sustain?
J&K has areas like Gilgit and some areas that bound China who already have claimed part of the territory. There is a dispute. Will Pakistan cede their all-important Karakoram highway? Surely and neatly Gilgit has already been cleaved away. Is this over or is there an agenda still for other stakeholders? How do Pakistan, China and India ensure that their boundary lines will remain firm? Which is the international border?

People, managing the mix, customs, religious tolerance, culture?
J&K has a large Hindu and Muslim population and important components from Ladakh and Sikhs. Then there are tribal and other important distinct aspects, such as those of the Gujjars. What will be their status? Firstly in seeking Aazadi, then in each preserving their way of life and under what rules.

In the aspects of religion, what is obvious that if each one stays close to its core there is no conflict. For Hindus the guiding force are the Vedas say to each man his ishta (path). For Muslims, if they simply follow the Holy Koran and Hadith there can be little chance of conflicts; The Buddhists are essentially peace loving and the Sikhs well integrated. So these can become a strong foundation and direction and such would be a basis of a workable framework that would then naturally extend to customs and cultures.


Economy, what we gain, what we loose, who pays?
J&K gets tens of thousands of crores annually from the Centre at the moment. Aazadi means that this is not coming. Nor subsidized rice, kerosene, petrol, diesel etc. Where is the income J&K gets on its own and will this be even sufficient for the government salaries. Where will the 9000 crores needed to pay government salaries come from? What will be the price of rice? Of Petrol and diesel? Where will we get the mutton and chicken? What will it cost? Will there be an import duty? How will our currency be valued and its exchange rate? Will it mean import licenses for TVís, Fridges, Cars, medicines; all goods that are manufactured outside J&K? At the start what is the position and how long will it remain such?

Infrastructure and Power Generation?
Assume that the existing power plans are handed over. Will we still have to repay the central government loan? Who will invest for new power projects? Where will the money come from? Who will develop new schools, roads, bridges, colleges, flyovers etc? What will be the Aazadi position to fund the same? Where will we get electricity from, will this have to be paid for? Who will pay, the consumer? With a 200-rupee connection that consumes 1000 rupees of power who will fund the gap and where will the Aazadi government get the money?

What happens to the water resources?
Indus water treaty. Then since mid 2009 Pakistan is separately and strongly stating the water issue. Aazadi will mean a third dimension. Who will give up their claim and existing arrangement? Will we still not be allowed to put up Hydel power? This is a huge issue for all. Already it is becoming obvious that, since 2009 later half, Pakistan has decided to aggressively launch the water dispute as a main agenda top item and disassociating this agenda from the Kashmir issue.

Education, start levels to higher education, where?
OK we have schools. We can have more private schools. But where will we do our higher education. If new colleges are to be built who pays for them? Where is the money? Will we have foreign exchange available to buy Indian Rupees, Dollars or Pakistani Rupees? Or will it be like old times when all you could get in foreign exchange was 500 dollars.
The balance of payment. How much a country exports and how much it imports defines the exchange rate? What value of consumed items or sold items in J&K come from outside today. What is our net export value of fruit, handicrafts etc? How does this balance out? Will there be trade restrictions from India and Pakistan? Will 20 Kashmiri rupees be worth 10 Indian or 15 Pakistani rupees? Will the fee to be paid for a Computer engineer course simply double because of exchange rates? Will there be a Nepal like acceptance of the Indian Rupee as a free currency? What? Things need to be spelt out.

What is the emerging vision? The roadmap for 20 years?
What is the plan? What industries can come up? What services sector industries can come up? What tourism potential can be developed? What infrastructure like roads, bridges, waterworks etc will be needed? How will it be funded? When will the funds be available? What will the prices be like? One year from now, two years or five years. What will be the quality of life and quality of governance? When do the Aazadi population start getting a good quality of life and financial stability. What time horizon? What hard work horizon? What deprived level horizon? Best case, worst case scenarios. How do we manage the safety of the land and people?

Will we need Aid? On what conditions? For how long? From whom?
It is clear that we still survive on economic grants from the centre. They have a road building program so we get a part of it and voila, the roads in Srinagar and Jammu are better now. But once this disappears where do we get the money. Even Pakistan a nation state of over 50 years is subsisting on American aid? Who will help J&K? What will be their price? What terms and conditions? What strings will they pull? What all will they demand? Pakistan by itself is dependent on US and other aid, what they can spare will not be meaningful. India has the resources but that means economic marriage so whatís different? The western countries will perhaps give but at a cost and on demands that mean that Aazadi remains bounded still.

It is incumbent on political and other leadership to come out with clarity on all issues like these. Perhaps they need to spend this summer of 2010 on this. Perhaps guided by economists, planners and others.

By no means what I have written above is the complete set of issues. I am a strong advocate of being solution centric, but to find solutions one must define the problems, that is the start point. Each group needs to get all such issues on board, find out where-we-are and show solutions that are possible. Economic & Political Feasibility and timescales included. Create agendas for attainment and only then can they be pursued. A comprehensive proposed shadow budget under a changed scenario for example. A believable strategic positioning in other non-financial areas. A road map then seems vital. The first outcome of such and exercise will be that it will bring our priortised issues sharply and clearly that need to be negotiated, if you may, and form a purposeful agenda for talks.

But what Kashmir does not need is to fall from the frying pan to the fire, which it surely could if realities are not visited and addressed. Beyond any jazba is the realm of responsibility that surely will become the deliverable as soon as the jazba chapter is over. Both jazba and due diligence on practicalities are equally important. There would be secondary battles thereafter, of corruption, of efficiency, of work culture; but these need to evolve in any case.

I am no subscriber to any rigid mindset. The only mindset I have is an enduring peace with honourable existence of all people. Greater Autonomy, self-rule or the greatest autonomy of Aazadi is the swath across which the solution exists and it is the duty of each and every leader to seek the best point across this range of possibility. That ironically is the first thing all need to agree upon!

Crystallizing thought and addressing such issues to workable and worthwhile levels is the key. Not doing so will mean that we throw away the key and attempt to feebly break a gigantic gridlock and sail Kashmir in the same enduring drift of self-prominence in the doldrums of time.

All aspects and few related issues of each concern me as a Kashmiri (read of J&K) and of course are of concern to the entire population sooner or later. It is to the serious minded intelligentsia that I present the above to be debated, ridiculed, criticized, or worked out. In bits or pieces or on the whole. The corollary perhaps is that it is incumbent for each political shade and direction to get their roadmaps out in detail. The same questions apply in different shades to all the leaders and their orientations. The key for all of us must inevitably depend on the following:

When you see the sunrise of tomorrows promise you never fear the future.



Tailpiece:

J&K has people from the valley, from jammu and from ladakh region.

Principally the major unrest is in the Valley

Within the Valley there are three types of people

1. People who are salaried, or have fixed incomes
2. People who earn from vocation and this provides them sustainance
3. Agricultural income dependent

The first ones are the ones who are supporting and instigating things
The second ones are waiting for the day the current generation of leaders die and the mess will stop
The agricultural ones are perturbed bit concerned only with developmental aspects, but are swayed easily
and some of us float from one to another













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Anon
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PostSubject: @zafar   Thu Jul 15, 2010 12:55 am

Thats exactly the question I posted some times back, though worded differently, I expressed the same uncertainity about things that would be delivered after the 'jazba'. If we havent done our homework with some imagination, the reality could hit us so hard that we might never recover...no one wan't to be taken unawares.
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mir
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PostSubject: Re: our leaders not thinking ahead, only focus is crisis genration or containment   Fri Jul 16, 2010 2:48 am

That's the question every small country on planet earth would have to answer! Luxemborg is smaller than Kargil, yet it has no problem existing as a viable independent nation!

If Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Switzerland, Kosovo, Luxemborg, Monaco, and many others can manage to get by, Kashmir will also.
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